2. Forecasts from various organizations
1) IMF prediction (December 22, 2024)
https://kyivindependent.com/new-imf-forecast-predicts-war-in-ukraine-ending-in-late-2025-or-2026/
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It is likely that the war will end at the end of 2025, or around mid-2026 at the latest.
Ukraine’s economy is likely to take a serious turn for the worse.
2) JP Morgan scenario (using Bard/Google model) (end of the second quarter of 2025)
probability
– The end result is that a stable democratic country is maintained and protected by the United States. Reconstruction begins with support from Russia’s frozen assets: approximately 15%
– The end result is possible with support from other countries, fortification, modernization of the military, and eventually the ability to defend oneself. However, similar to Israel, war could break out again at any time. Restoration of US-Russia relations: approximately 20%
– An ending in which the conflict is frozen while being strongly subordinated to Russia. Gradually absorbed by Russia due to dwindling external support and lack of NATO/EU membership: approximately 50%
3) CSIS Machine Learning (February 27, 2025)
It is predicted that there is a roughly 60% probability that a ceasefire will be reached through negotiations between 2025 and 2026.
3. Expert predictions
1) John Mearsheimer (November 2025): Realist scholar
It seems likely that Russia will take over 8 Ukrainian oblasts (30-40% of Ukraine’s total).
2) Maria Berlinska (July 2025): Ukrainian female soldier
20% chance of Ukraine losing. It will probably last indefinitely.
3) CSIS (February 2024): American think tank
https://www.airandspaceforces.com/experts-2025-year-of-decision-ukraine-war/
Ukraine is running out of resources. A decision must be made in 2025.
4) New York Times (November 2025): American media
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/22/opinion/ukraine-russia-war-end.html
After asking seven experts, a ceasefire (ceasefire) would be possible, but honestly, complete peace is difficult.
In summary
– It seems likely that a ceasefire will be reached with Russia occupying about 20-40% of Ukraine’s territory.
* Various experts, betting sites, JP Morgan (+AI model), etc. are making similar judgments.
– The United States’ withdrawal, Europe’s lack of support, etc. are all structural causes, so it will not be easy to change them.
* About 50-60% chance to strengthen Russian influence again