The reason why the Korean economy and real estate are pessimistic

In fact, population decline and social aging have already been experienced by most developed countries. However, in Korea, the speed of population decline and aging is at a catastrophic level that humanity has never experienced. Most developed countries experienced a gradual population decline over a much longer period of time than ours during the long period of industrialization. But our birth rate has decreased to 1/7 or 1/8 in just two generations. Considering the population composition, the quality is very poor. We try to hope that we can somehow cope with production through the innovation of artificial intelligence and robots, but there is no real answer for consumption. The economy will return to its current state only if the younger generation works hard to make money, spend money, pay hundreds of millions of dollars in debt to banks, and buy houses, but this is an impossible structure.

Second, our country’s middle class has the highest real estate-heavy asset structure in the world. In fact, once you have earned enough money for your entire life to buy an 84 apartment in Seoul and pay off all your debt, you will be old enough to be kicked out of the labor market. Other than that, they hold very little financial assets. Among the Korean middle class, the point will soon come when those born in the 70s and 80s will become seniors. Probably about 50% of the population will be elderly by then. This national real estate monopoly-type asset structure makes it difficult to flexibly respond to rapid economic fluctuations.

Under these conditions, can it be said that housing prices in Seoul are different and that Seoul is permanently on an upward trend?

People keep flocking to Seoul from the provinces and claim that housing prices in Seoul are invincible, but the young population in the provinces is not an inexhaustible source of water. No such thing. It can be said that almost all of the people who will come up have already done so. The young population itself is declining drastically.