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American economist Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Through the book Black Swan published just before the subprime mortgage crisis,
“We can look at the effect and guess the cause, but
“Even if there is a foreshadowing, it is not easy to notice.”
saying
[Even if there was a crystal ball that could see the future one day ahead,
Most investors will go bankrupt within one year]
The uncertainty of the information and
I have talked about the chaos of the economy, etc.
image text translation
Baak
Victor Hagani
James White
Founder & CIO
London
CEO
Philadelphia
Accordingly, capital management partners and CEOs
Victor Hagani and James White
To prove or refute what Nicholas Taleb said
To 118 MBA students from top universities in the U.S.
Provide $50 and a front page in the next day’s Wall Street Journal.
Invest in S&P 500 and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds
Experiment to see how much profit you can make after 15 days
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Although the exact numbers are obscured
In the newspapers of certain 15 days
– Maintain monetary policy, euro falls, consumer spending increases
– Orange juice price rises, biotech value surges, economic recovery
– Poor bank performance, decline in Bitcoin, increase in industrial production
Various information that can be used for investment was given, such as
image text translation
Distribution of Player Outcomes
Average Return: 3.29
25 3
20#
154
1033
~10033(Bust)
9338t0-5033
5038
fate
503
5035
9933
-10033 (mar)
As a result, the average return was 3.2%
45% of experimenters lost money
16% of subjects went bankrupt
Of all 2,000 transactions by experimenters,
The direction hit rate for stocks and bonds was only 51.5%.
image text translation
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
@nntaleb
FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS
My conjecture; expressed on
has been tested by Haghani et al.
Indeed they failed to really capitalize on information 1)
you don’t know
beforehand whatis noise & 2) overestimate the information (sizing)
With DETPL
translation
Translate from English Googl
offer)
be fooled by recklessness
My recommendation for X is that providing news frames in advance does not increase performance.
Not reviewed by Haghani et al:
In fact, they failed to actually utilize the information. 1) What to know in advance
2) The information (size) frame is overestimated.
Regarding the results of this experiment, Nicholas Taleb
“See, I did that.”
He tweeted