Summary of Bank of Korea Governor Lee Chang-yong’s Lecture

(1)Japan is a well-off old man, and we are likely to become an old man without money
(2)There’s that
(3)It is said that we have caught up with Japan, but if you look at the wealth related to income, Japan has much more
(4)● Japan invested heavily in foreign countries based on a large current account surplus from the 1970s to the 1990s before the bubble burst
(5)● Given the aging population, we are quite likely to follow the Japanese economy, and we are very worried that the pace of aging is faster and the birth rate is lower than that of Japan
(6)Recently, Japan’s low birth rate and aging population have slowed, and the economy has improved as foreign workers and female workers are used a lot
(7)Businesses have lost their jobs under the influence of Chinese market in China
(8)In the 2010s, the neglect of restructuring due to the Chinese speciality is becoming a boomerang
(9)The decline in Korea’s exports to China since 2017 is not due to the U.S.-China conflict, but to the weakening competitiveness of Korean companies
(10)I didn’t think China would catch up with us because I’ve been used to Chinese specials for more than a decade and have a good sweet tooth
(11)This resulted in a delay in industrial restructuring of the transition from manufacturing to service-oriented
(12)As China’s economy went over 7-8, companies that needed to switch to new industries went to China and were satisfied with low wages and large markets, which made a lot of money, but the time to take the industry to a higher level was delayed
(13)Due to the closed manpower market, it is not easy for domestic companies to convert to new industries
(14)● Once you get a job, you’ll have a lifetime job If the battery industry changes, you have to move from one industry to another, which is a problem
(15)● Our labor market needs a state where a little more people are laid off and the period is a state where the government has a social safety net to guarantee, and the structure Korea has is not an advantageous structure
(16)An example of a professor’s society where resistance from vested interests prevents the conversion of new industries
(17)● Many new talent should come out of new fields, but my major in university is still the same as in the past
(18)● Because professors don’t want to miss out on their department’s
(19)Students don’t go to the side where the demand for manpower in the industry is high, but students go according to the number of professors. I don’t think it’s preventing the existing vested interests from going to new businesses
(20)● It is not fiscal and monetary policy that sets the growth engine, but restructuring, and depending on success, aging and low birth rates can be overcome
(21)Don’t expect a cut in the benchmark interest rate within the end of this year
(22)● It is difficult to say that you will lower interest rates for the time being, so don’t expect too much to lower interest rates. Adjust interest rates by looking at the situation until the end of the year
(23)I’m going to look at it from a macro perspective
(24)● Household debt and prices are the reasons why it is difficult to cut interest rates
(25)● Many people may think that it is time to cut interest rates from now on, but the Bank of Korea is cautious that prices are likely to rise to 35 by the end of the year considering the base effect